Part-2)
One of the exciting things about the upcoming elections is the “HDP Question”: Will HDP pass the 10% threshold?
Today we’ll discuss the first possibility: HDP passes the threshold.
Although a small chance, let’s see what can happen if HDP passes 10%. First of all, if HDP passes 10%, it means CHP has lost 2-3% of its votes. It’s a very big possibility that AKP and HDP have made an agreement long before the elections: HDP will try to get CHP’s votes rather than AKP’s. That is HDP will use a more “secular” speech and aim for CHP-voters of the West, rather than using an “ethnic” speech aiming AKP-voters in the Eastern part of Turkey. It may sound illogical to talk about any “agreement” between AKP and HDP since these two parties are mainly criticizing each other in their campaigns, but since 2009, peace talks have been continuing within two parties. Therefore, it would be illogical NOT to think about an agreement between them.
Actually a “win-win” situation exists for both AKP&HDP. If HDP aims at the CHP voters in the west, this would surely be a “win” for AKP also, since CHP would lose 1-2% to HDP.
If the opposite would occur, that is if HDP aimed for AKP voters in eastern Turkey, this would be a “lose-lose” situation for both parties. Not to lose any votes to HDP, AKP would have to use a more “Kurdish-separatist” speech that would result a decrease for AKP in western and northern parts of Turkey and an increase in MHP votes because of the nationalist reaction to AKP’s pro-Kurdish speech. This would certainly be a “lose” for AKP. For HDP, it would also be a “lose” situation because to get the support of AKP voters, HDP would have to use a more Kurdish-separatist and religious speech since most of the AKP voters of Eastern Turkey are highly religious and fundamentalist. But this way, HDP would lose the support it gets from secular-CHP voters in western Turkey…
Therefore, the two parties seem to have reached a consensus about their campaigns. HDP uses a highly “non”-ethnic speech, claiming to be the party of not only Kurds but Turkey as a whole and Demirtas carefully uses leftist and secular slogans to get the sympathy of CHP-voters. We think it’s a shame for CHP-voters to forget about the PKK terror and feel any sympathy for its supporter HDP, but anyway, those who are disappointed about CHP have started to consider HDP as a new alternative… CHP usually gets about 25-26% of votes. HDP seems to have about 7% currently. We are sure they are planning to get 2-3% from CHP, especially in western big cities like Istanbul, İzmir, Bursa and Kocaeli.
If this happens, that is if HDP passes 10% with the 2-3% they get from CHP-voters, this will be a clear “win-win” for AKP&HDP. AKP, suffering from the evident loss of votes will find itself in a surprisingly advantageous situation. Because according to the calculations, a 2-3% decrease would mean one MP loss for CHP in almost all of the western cities! HDP, passing 10% will maybe lessen AKP’s MP’s in eastern cities, but with the loss of CHP’s votes, AKP has a chance to compensate this loss with the western cities…
But, this “win-win” situation does not end here… After the elections, if HDP passes 10% with the help from CHP-voters, it means AKP can get 276 MP’s for a single-party government. At least, they will have a chance to make a coalition government with HDP. Or a minority government with the support of HDP… Of course, this scenario is one of the worst. Most Turkish citizens will not be so happy seeing a PKK-supporter as a minister! It will probably create a catastrophe…
There’s another deadly scenario in which HDP passes 10% and gets 70 MP’s with AKP winning more than 300 seats. This means a single-party government of AKP and enough MP’s to change the constitution with HDP… HDP had declared before that they would support Presidency System Erdogan desires if “Kurds would be given more freedom” which is something Erdogan would not hesitate to do.
Some CHP-voters, strong opposers of AKP, think that if HDP passes 10%, this would decrease the number of MP’s AKP gets from Eastern cities and would prevent a single-party government of AKP. We don’t agree. As stated above, HDP needs 2-3% from CHP-voters. Therefore, if, in any case, they manage to pass 10%, it would only be possible with the help of CHP-voters resulting for AKP a decrease of MP’s in eastern cities, but also an increase in western cities!
Therefore, CHP-voters should act foresighted, think cleverly and see that, the only way to prevent a single-party government of AKP and Presidency of Erdogan, is not helping HDP pass 10%, but campaigning for CHP to get more than 30% and helping MHP to get closer to 20%. This scenario, with CHP over 30%, MHP closer to 20%, HDP under the threshold, will make it possible for a CHP-MHP coalition.
Would Erdogan accept such a coalition? Well, that’s an answer for another post.
Tomorrow, we’ll discuss what could happen if HDP cannot pass 10%...
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