What if HDP cannot Pass 10% Threshold?

(HDP’s Strategies for the Elections
Part 3)

Regarding the Turkish elections, people are concentrated so much on whether AKP will be able to form a single-party government or not, the results for HDP are usually neglected. We will of course discuss the elections furthermore, with the issues about AKP, CHP and MHP; but let’s first finish the HDP subject.

Let’s see what may happen if HDP does not pass the 10% threshold.

First of all, regarding the rivalry for the government between AKP and CHP-MHP, if HDP cannot pass 10%, AKP will be the advantageous party. As is known HDP has 35 MP’s and most of these are from the south-eastern cities in which MHP and CHP are very weak. Therefore, it shouldn’t be a surprise that AKP will get most of these 35 MP’s if HDP gets less than 10%. But, there is more to this. As we discussed in the previous post, if 1-2% of CHP-voters decide to vote for HDP to help them pass the threshold, number of seats for CHP could decrease in some western cities and AKP’s MP’s in these cities would increase, too. The situation can be as follows: AKP, although experiencing a decrease in the votes, will get enough seats to form a single-party government.

But the important question is “What will HDP do?” It is a great possibility that they will start the propaganda saying that because of the threshold, Kurdish votes couldn’t be represented in the Parliament and form a “Kurdish Parliament” and declare a sort of “autonomy”. It seems US & EU will gladly “accept” this situation and push the Turkish government to make more reforms regarding the Kurdish Question. This is of course a great danger for the integrity of Turkish Republic. Turkish people will of course not accept this and a catastrophe will surely begin.

As we discussed before, if HDP passes the threshold, a catastrophe will again be awaiting Turkey. Isn’t there a third possibility? Of course there is… It depends mostly on CHP’s performance. Now, let’s see this third “optimistic” but probable scenario:

If CHP-voters (around 1-2%) who think helping HDP pass the threshold would stop Erdogan’s Tyranny will see the truth and NOT vote for HDP, CHP could get as much as 30% maybe even more… AKP’s campaing is not going so well and the annoyance because of Erdogan’s tyranny and corruption seems to damage the support for AKP. This could result a major decrease in AKP’s votes. Maybe AKP will see less than 40% for the first time in the last 10 years. If the former AKP-voters abandoning AKP decide to vote for CHP or MHP, the total of CHP&MHP can reach as high as 45% which brings out the possibility of a coalition-government of CHP-MHP! The key point is prevention of election frauds which AKP is very successful and experienced at.

To make this “optimistic” scenario a reality CHP should accomplish these:

1. Restrain any CHP-voters that plan to support HDP’s ambition for the overcoming the 10% threshold.

2. Protect the ballots and prevent election frauds.

3. Concentrate on the cities in which CHP nearly missed an extra MP. (There are some cities CHP missed a MP with votes less than a thousand)

CHP, as the party as a whole, starting from the Chairman Kilicdaroglu down to sympathizers seem to be very enthusiastic and full of hope in their campaign. If this mood continues and CHP fights harder than they had done in the last 3-4 elections, this third “optimistic” scenario could turn to a reality and Erdogan’s Tyranny will start to crumble…

If AKP cannot form a single-party government, will Erdogan give Kilicdaroglu the authorization to form a government with MHP? Knowing his ambitions and uncompromising attitude, it seems a small possibility. Some AKP officials declared that if such a situation occurs, they will push for a minority government. Then what? They surely will not be able to get a vote of confidence from the Parliament. Possibly a deep political crisis will begin…

It seems, on the 8^th of June, the day just after the Elections, we will witness a major political crisis… There is one thing for sure, Erdogan will not be able to sit at his new Palace as comfortable as today…