One of the most important aspects for the upcoming elections of June 7th is the participation of HDP as a party rather than supporting independent candidates. This is of course a risk for HDP, since there is a election threshold of 10% and for the last 20 years HDP has attended the elections, they have never passed 6.5%.
The only time they passed the threshold was in the Presidency Elections last year in which Selahattin Demirtas, the co-chairman of HDP, had gotten 9.8% of the votes. Of course, the situation in the Presidency Elections was a lot different. First of all, it was in the middle of the summer, and due to the “two ballot system” many people decided not to vote in the first ballot waiting to see who would survive to the second who decreased the attendance percentage substantially: 75%, a lot less than the normal 85-90%. Of course, most of the non-attenders were the regular voters of the two main opposition parties CHP and MHP. Also, there was somewhat of a reaction to Ihsanoglu, CHP-MHP’s mutual candidate. HDP’s voters were more loyal and socio-economically, less prone to go to vacations. This increased the votes of Demirtas who was also successful to get the support of CHP voters that didn’t approve the candidacy of Ihsanoglu.
Anyhow, 9.8% that Demirtas got in the Presidency Elections was far above the usual strength of HDP but was enough to encourage them to run in the elections as a party, rather than support independent candidates. This may sound strange, but the 10% threshold is not easy to pass and HDP as a locally strong party with 40-50% in some areas in southeastern Turkey had to run as independent candidates to be elected. This way HDP could get 35 MP’s in the last election. If no threshold existed, it is estimated they could win a little more number of seats, maybe as much as 50.
If HDP passes the threshold, there is a possibility that they will have 70-75 MP’s in the Parliament. Remembering the separatist ideas of HDP, their support to PKK and the highly ethnic level of their speech; it should be understandable that most of the Turkish people find the probability of HDP passing the threshold a very serious threat to the integrity of Turkish Republic and the stability of the Turkish Regime.
Will or can they pass the threshold? Honestly speaking, they don’t have much of a chance. But in both ways, whether they pass it or not, they will get what they want: More compromises in the Kurdish Question, an advance in the (so-called) “peace-talks” between AKP and PKK and a chance for an increase of the legitimacy of PKK and their leader Ocalan… Maybe even some sort of an amnesty for Ocalan…
Tomorrow Part II: Possible consequences of the Elections… Two scenarios, with HDP passing the threshold or getting a percentage lower than 10%...
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