Head-Columnist of Turkish Left Gokce Firat Detained over Insulting the President

Gokce Firat, National Party leader and Head-Columnist of Turkish Left, was detained today by "counter-terrorism" Police with the famous accusation of "Insulting the President".

He is still in police custody, but interestingly charged by an article he's already facing a trial. How many new cases are to be opened because of one single article?

This has become something quite normal in Erdogan's "New Turkey"... As we approach the day of the Elections, Erdogan's Tyranny is increasing the pressure. Especially on the 2nd anniversary of the Gezi protests...

Gokce Firat was able to send a brief note to his followers:
"Our struggle will continue with the spirit of Gezi Protests!"

Gokce Firat is expected to spend the night at the police station. We will keep informing about the updates...

First "Reasonable Suspect" Aytekin Gezici was on Trial

(Left to right) Gokce Firat, Aytekin Gezici and his lawyer

Journalist Aytekin Gezici, the first suspect taken into police custody with the famous “reasonable doubt” was on trial, yesterday. The hearing was held on 29th Penal Court of First Instance of Ankara. 

Gokce Firat, the head-columnist of Turkish Left, was one of those who attended the hearing to support Gezici.

The hearing witnessed certain memorable moments. For example, when defending himself about his expression “Spit at Arinc’s face”, Gezici’s statement of “It’s a tradition in Anatolian villages to spit at mouths of newborn babies” caused some laughter in the hearing room. 

When asked about what he meant with calling Davutoglu “junior brother-in-law”, Gezici defended himself by “Because he reminds me of ‘Tosun Pasha’ film and I find him sympathetic” and caused even more laughter. (“Tosun Pasha” is a famous Turkish comedy film about a counterfeit Ottoman general who forgets he’s fake and starts to act like the General) 

When asked about his statement about Erdogan, Gezici stated that:

“I didn’t refer to Erdogan when I said ‘give the man back what you stole’. Why does Erdogan take it so personally?”

Gezici’s lawyer claimed that his client cannot be convicted for “Insulting the President” because Erdogan doesn’t behave like a President. The Attorney also stated that his client was on target to suppress the public opposition. 

It was interesting to see that while Erdogan’s lawyer was heartily defending Davutoglu, the attorney of the Prime Minister preferred to sit back and watch the hearing silently!

The date of the next hearing was announced to be the 17th of September with the interim decision for the request of a written substantive defense statement. 

Turkish Left Editor-in-Chief Ali Ozsoy was Again on Trial Today

Ali Ozsoy (second from the left)
and his attorney Hilal Gultepe
(on the furthest left)

Ali Ozsoy, Chairman of Young Turks Organization and Editor-in-Chief of Turkish Left was on trial today because of his latest book “Beware! Thief!” (Hırsız Vaaar!). As remembered from our previous posts, Tayyip Erdogan and his son Bilal Erdogan had sued Ozsoy claiming that his book about the famous Corruption Scandal was “insulting” them. The Prosecutor, surprisingly, claimed three different cases for a single book! Today’s trial was about one of these three: “Insulting Bilal Erdogan”.

In his defense, Ozsoy pointed out that the Erdogan family was suing everybody who is writing about the Corruption Scandal but never showing up at the trials. Ozsoy also accused the Erdogan family of abusing the judiciary system to suppress people. Recalling that Bilal Erdogan is not a civil servant and doesn’t seem to be a “busy” person, Ozsoy requested the attendance of Bilal Erdogan for the next hearing, but was denied by the Court. Ozsoy’s attorney Hilal Gultepe requested the official report of Institute of Forensic Science indicating that the famous leaked recordings of the telephone call between Tayyip and Bilal Erdogan was genuine and not assemblage. This request was also declined. The judgement was postponed for the next hearing.

After the trial, Ali Ozsoy made a short statement to the press:

“Last month, the Judge of another lawsuit about my book was arrested before me. God may help all including the judges and the prosecutors in this inequitable regime. But don’t worry, future is in our hands. I, personally do not have any concerns about my own future, it’s the thieves and traitors who should be worried...”

Ali Ozsoy's book about the Corruption Scandal

What if HDP cannot Pass 10% Threshold?

(HDP’s Strategies for the Elections
Part 3)

Regarding the Turkish elections, people are concentrated so much on whether AKP will be able to form a single-party government or not, the results for HDP are usually neglected. We will of course discuss the elections furthermore, with the issues about AKP, CHP and MHP; but let’s first finish the HDP subject.

Let’s see what may happen if HDP does not pass the 10% threshold.

First of all, regarding the rivalry for the government between AKP and CHP-MHP, if HDP cannot pass 10%, AKP will be the advantageous party. As is known HDP has 35 MP’s and most of these are from the south-eastern cities in which MHP and CHP are very weak. Therefore, it shouldn’t be a surprise that AKP will get most of these 35 MP’s if HDP gets less than 10%. But, there is more to this. As we discussed in the previous post, if 1-2% of CHP-voters decide to vote for HDP to help them pass the threshold, number of seats for CHP could decrease in some western cities and AKP’s MP’s in these cities would increase, too. The situation can be as follows: AKP, although experiencing a decrease in the votes, will get enough seats to form a single-party government.

But the important question is “What will HDP do?” It is a great possibility that they will start the propaganda saying that because of the threshold, Kurdish votes couldn’t be represented in the Parliament and form a “Kurdish Parliament” and declare a sort of “autonomy”. It seems US & EU will gladly “accept” this situation and push the Turkish government to make more reforms regarding the Kurdish Question. This is of course a great danger for the integrity of Turkish Republic. Turkish people will of course not accept this and a catastrophe will surely begin.

As we discussed before, if HDP passes the threshold, a catastrophe will again be awaiting Turkey. Isn’t there a third possibility? Of course there is… It depends mostly on CHP’s performance. Now, let’s see this third “optimistic” but probable scenario:

If CHP-voters (around 1-2%) who think helping HDP pass the threshold would stop Erdogan’s Tyranny will see the truth and NOT vote for HDP, CHP could get as much as 30% maybe even more… AKP’s campaing is not going so well and the annoyance because of Erdogan’s tyranny and corruption seems to damage the support for AKP. This could result a major decrease in AKP’s votes. Maybe AKP will see less than 40% for the first time in the last 10 years. If the former AKP-voters abandoning AKP decide to vote for CHP or MHP, the total of CHP&MHP can reach as high as 45% which brings out the possibility of a coalition-government of CHP-MHP! The key point is prevention of election frauds which AKP is very successful and experienced at.

To make this “optimistic” scenario a reality CHP should accomplish these:

1. Restrain any CHP-voters that plan to support HDP’s ambition for the overcoming the 10% threshold.

2. Protect the ballots and prevent election frauds.

3. Concentrate on the cities in which CHP nearly missed an extra MP. (There are some cities CHP missed a MP with votes less than a thousand)

CHP, as the party as a whole, starting from the Chairman Kilicdaroglu down to sympathizers seem to be very enthusiastic and full of hope in their campaign. If this mood continues and CHP fights harder than they had done in the last 3-4 elections, this third “optimistic” scenario could turn to a reality and Erdogan’s Tyranny will start to crumble…

If AKP cannot form a single-party government, will Erdogan give Kilicdaroglu the authorization to form a government with MHP? Knowing his ambitions and uncompromising attitude, it seems a small possibility. Some AKP officials declared that if such a situation occurs, they will push for a minority government. Then what? They surely will not be able to get a vote of confidence from the Parliament. Possibly a deep political crisis will begin…

It seems, on the 8^th of June, the day just after the Elections, we will witness a major political crisis… There is one thing for sure, Erdogan will not be able to sit at his new Palace as comfortable as today… 

What will Happen if HDP Passes the 10% Threshold?

(HDP’s Strategies for the Elections
Part-2)

One of the exciting things about the upcoming elections is the “HDP Question”: Will HDP pass the 10% threshold?

Today we’ll discuss the first possibility:  HDP passes the threshold.

Although a small chance, let’s see what can happen if HDP passes 10%. First of all, if HDP passes 10%, it means CHP has lost 2-3% of its votes. It’s a very big possibility that AKP and HDP have made an agreement long before the elections: HDP will try to get CHP’s votes rather than AKP’s. That is HDP will use a more “secular” speech and aim for CHP-voters of the West, rather than using an “ethnic” speech aiming AKP-voters in the Eastern part of Turkey. It may sound illogical to talk about any “agreement” between AKP and HDP since these two parties are mainly criticizing each other in their campaigns, but since 2009, peace talks have been continuing within two parties. Therefore, it would be illogical NOT to think about an agreement between them. 

Actually a “win-win” situation exists for both AKP&HDP. If HDP aims at the CHP voters in the west, this would surely be a “win” for AKP also, since CHP would lose 1-2% to HDP. 

If the opposite would occur, that is if HDP aimed for AKP voters in eastern Turkey, this would be a “lose-lose” situation for both parties. Not to lose any votes to HDP, AKP would have to use a more “Kurdish-separatist” speech that would result a decrease for AKP in western and northern parts of Turkey and an increase in MHP votes because of the nationalist reaction to AKP’s pro-Kurdish speech. This would certainly be a “lose” for AKP. For HDP, it would also be a “lose” situation because to get the support of AKP voters, HDP would have to use a more Kurdish-separatist and religious speech since most of the AKP voters of Eastern Turkey are highly religious and fundamentalist. But this way, HDP would lose the support it gets from secular-CHP voters in western Turkey…

Therefore, the two parties seem to have reached a consensus about their campaigns. HDP uses a highly “non”-ethnic speech, claiming to be the party of not only Kurds but Turkey as a whole and Demirtas carefully uses leftist and secular slogans to get the sympathy of CHP-voters. We think it’s a shame for CHP-voters to forget about the PKK terror and feel any sympathy for its supporter HDP, but anyway, those who are disappointed about CHP have started to consider HDP as a new alternative… CHP usually gets about 25-26% of votes. HDP seems to have about 7% currently. We are sure they are planning to get 2-3% from CHP, especially in western big cities like Istanbul, İzmir, Bursa and Kocaeli. 

If this happens, that is if HDP passes 10% with the 2-3% they get from CHP-voters, this will be a clear “win-win” for AKP&HDP. AKP, suffering from the evident loss of votes will find itself in a surprisingly advantageous situation. Because according to the calculations, a 2-3% decrease would mean one MP loss for CHP in almost all of the western cities! HDP, passing 10% will maybe lessen AKP’s MP’s in eastern cities, but with the loss of CHP’s votes, AKP has a chance to compensate this loss with the western cities…

But, this “win-win” situation does not end here… After the elections, if HDP passes 10% with the help from CHP-voters, it means AKP can get 276 MP’s for a single-party government. At least, they will have a chance to make a coalition government with HDP. Or a minority government with the support of HDP… Of course, this scenario is one of the worst. Most Turkish citizens will not be so happy seeing a PKK-supporter as a minister! It will probably create a catastrophe… 

There’s another deadly scenario in which HDP passes 10% and gets 70 MP’s with AKP winning more than 300 seats. This means a single-party government of AKP and enough MP’s to change the constitution with HDP… HDP had declared before that they would support Presidency System Erdogan desires if “Kurds would be given more freedom” which is something Erdogan would not hesitate to do. 

Some CHP-voters, strong opposers of AKP, think that if HDP passes 10%, this would decrease the number of MP’s AKP gets from Eastern cities and would prevent a single-party government of AKP. We don’t agree. As stated above, HDP needs 2-3% from CHP-voters. Therefore, if, in any case, they manage to pass 10%, it would only be possible with the help of CHP-voters resulting for AKP a decrease of MP’s in eastern cities, but also an increase in western cities!

Therefore, CHP-voters should act foresighted, think cleverly and see that, the only way to prevent a single-party government of AKP and Presidency of Erdogan, is not helping HDP pass 10%, but campaigning for CHP to get more than 30% and helping MHP to get closer to 20%. This scenario, with CHP over 30%, MHP closer to 20%, HDP under the threshold, will make it possible for a CHP-MHP coalition. 

Would Erdogan accept such a coalition? Well, that’s an answer for another post. 

Tomorrow, we’ll discuss what could happen if HDP cannot pass 10%...

Strategies of HDP for the Elections-1 Can HDP Pass the 10% Threshold?

One of the most important aspects for the upcoming elections of June 7th is the participation of HDP as a party rather than supporting independent candidates. This is of course a risk for HDP, since there is a election threshold of 10% and for the last 20 years HDP has attended the elections, they have never passed 6.5%.

The only time they passed the threshold was in the Presidency Elections last year in which Selahattin Demirtas, the co-chairman of HDP, had gotten 9.8% of the votes. Of course, the situation in the Presidency Elections was a lot different. First of all, it was in the middle of the summer, and due to the “two ballot system” many people decided not to vote in the first ballot waiting to see who would survive to the second who decreased the attendance percentage substantially: 75%, a lot less than the normal 85-90%. Of course, most of the non-attenders were the regular voters of the two main opposition parties CHP and MHP. Also, there was somewhat of a reaction to Ihsanoglu, CHP-MHP’s mutual candidate. HDP’s voters were more loyal and socio-economically, less prone to go to vacations. This increased the votes of Demirtas who was also successful to get the support of CHP voters that didn’t approve the candidacy of Ihsanoglu.

Anyhow, 9.8% that Demirtas got in the Presidency Elections was far above the usual strength of HDP but was enough to encourage them to run in the elections as a party, rather than support independent candidates. This may sound strange, but the 10% threshold is not easy to pass and HDP as a locally strong party with 40-50% in some areas in southeastern Turkey had to run as independent candidates to be elected. This way HDP could get 35 MP’s in the last election. If no threshold existed, it is estimated they could win a little more number of seats, maybe as much as 50.

If HDP passes the threshold, there is a possibility that they will have 70-75 MP’s in the Parliament. Remembering the separatist ideas of HDP, their support to PKK and the highly ethnic level of their speech; it should be understandable that most of the Turkish people find the probability of HDP passing the threshold a very serious threat to the integrity of Turkish Republic and the stability of the Turkish Regime.

Will or can they pass the threshold? Honestly speaking, they don’t have much of a chance. But in both ways, whether they pass it or not, they will get what they want: More compromises in the Kurdish Question, an advance in the (so-called) “peace-talks” between AKP and PKK and a chance for an increase of the legitimacy of PKK and their leader Ocalan… Maybe even some sort of an amnesty for Ocalan…

Tomorrow Part II: Possible consequences of the Elections… Two scenarios, with HDP passing the threshold or getting a percentage lower than 10%...

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